SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

The adjacent chart shows the price movement of NCDEX RM seed 2-month contract. It was moving up for last several sessions. However it faced resistance near the upper channel line. From there it has entered a correction mode. The daily momentum indicator that had been stretched to the overbought zone has triggered bearish crossover. On the downside junction of 20-day moving average and the lower channel line ie Rs.3,950 and Rs3,935 will be the key area to watch out for. On the other hand, Rs4,093 and Rs4,110 will act as a key resistance zone

The adjacent chart shows the price movement of NCDEX soya oil 2-month continuous contract. For the last few sessions it is facing resistance near the key daily moving averages. Structurally it is poised for the next leg down. In the last session it has formed a bearish Belt Hold candle. Thus the agri-commodity is expected to fall towards the low of Rs.585.50. The equality target on the downside comes to Rs.565. On the higher side, the swing’s high of Rs.593.80 will act as a key resistance on a closing basis.

The adjacent chart shows the price movement of NCDEX RM seed 2-month contract. It has been moving up for the last few sessions. However it recently faced resistance near the upper channel line. From there it entered a correction mode. The daily momentum indicator has reached the overbought zone and needs to cool off. From a short-term perspective the agri commodity can come down till Rs.3,965 and Rs.3,915. On the other hand, the recent high of Rs.4,154 will act as a key resistance.

As can be seen from the adjacent chart, MCX mentha oil was trading in a medium-term downward sloping channel. Recently it has crossed the upper end of the channel and has retested it. Along with the channel line the key daily moving averages are there to provide support to the agri-commodity. At these supports the oil formed a bullish outside bar in the last session. Thus the commodity looks set to move higher. The key levels on the upside will be Rs740 and Rs.746. On the other hand, the swing’s low of Rs.691 will act as a key support on a closing basis.

The adjacent chart shows the price movement of NCDEX soyabean December contract. For last few sessions the agri-commodity has been trading in sideways to a bearish manner. Currently it is trading near the lower end of a sideways channel. The junction of 40-day exponential moving average and the daily lower Bollinger Band is acting as an additional support. Thus the commodity seems to be forming a short term base. Rs3,217 and Rs3,196 is a key support zone. Till the time the support zone holds on a closing basis soyabean can move higher. The key levels on the upside will be Rs3,300 and Rs3,370.

Jeera futures ended the day lower on short selling amid higher arrivals. The NCDEX Jeera April delivery ended the day at Rs9965, down Rs 125 or 1.24% over last close. Cumin seed is likely to drop further on bounty crop amid weak export demand at present.

The market sources suggested that the total domestic Jeera production is estimated at 55-60 lakh bags in the current year against the previous estimates of 45-48 lakh bags. This is mainly due to strong production estimates in Gujarat. The prices will also be pressurized by fresh supplies in local mandies. Traders are expecting that arrivals are likely to gain momentum in the coming days on the account of rising new supplies from Rajasthan.

Jeera failed to recover further as short selling emerged triggered by higher arrivals. The counter touched almost six year low with prices hitting low of Rs 9870 level. The counter ended the day at Rs9965, down Rs 125 or 1.24% over last close and the open interest added 147 tonnes to 9,699 tonnes, indicating short selling. Technically, the counter is likely to find support at Rs 9870, Rs 9800 and resistance is at Rs 10,000, Rs 10,100 per quintal.

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX soya oil March contract. We can observe that soya oil has been in a short-term uptrend for the past couple of weeks. It has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily charts which indicates an uptrend. The daily momentum indicator has a positive crossover and is currently trading above the 20- and 40-daily moving averages. Our initial target of Rs709 has been achieved. Traders are advised to trail their stop loss at Rs702 to protect their profits. The targets on the upside are Rs718 and Rs728.

Cardamom spurted further on the report of strong export demand. The spice continued it`s up trend for the sixth consecutive trading sessions with the futures hitting upper circuit in the last two sessions.MCX Cardamom for the February delivery ended the day at Rs 787.40, up Rs 30.20 or 3.99%. Technically, the counter is at overbought position as on Thursday close (the 14-day RSI is at 85 levels) and so a pull back can be expected in the coming sessions. Therefore, further acquisition of long positions should be careful.

As per the latest spices export data released by the spices board of India, India exported small Cardamom of 1,805 MT valued at Rs. 144.35 crore during the period April to November 2013, jumped 38% and 22% respectively in volume and value of exports. Indian crop also better on favorable weather this year and the next picking is just starting. The overall arrivals in the auctions in India so far 20th January 2014 are estimated at 13,264 tonnes, against 6,787 tonnes same period last year. The harvesting of the new crop had just started in Guatemala. Crop size is similar to last year.

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX jeera March 2014 contract. Jeera made a sharp pullback towards the medium-term rising trendline (shown in blue colour) after completing a five-wave decline on the downside. The agri-commodity has faced resistance at the crucial 61.8% retracement level and sold off from there. Last week we saw the agri-commodity traded in a volatile manner and closed the week with marginal gains. It was unable to close above the crucial weekly moving averages which indicates that the weakness still persists. We expect jeera to trade weak for the targets of Rs.11895, which is the previous swing’s low, and Rs11,275, which is the next swing’s low. The stop loss should be trailed to Rs12,947, which is the swing’s high.

Pepper futures slipped for the six trading sessions on the back of reports of Vietnam easing the prices of new crops and arrivals of Indian crops in the local market. The NMCE pepper for the February delivery ended the day at Rs 51,067, down Rs 383 or 0.74% over Friday`s close. Pepper futures are expected to extend the losses on profit taking and reports of flow of arrivals from India and Vietnam`s plan to sell at lower rates.

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX soya bean. Last week we saw soya bean traded within the range of the penultimate week and closed positive. Our sense is that it is in “wave IV” where we generally see a sideways consolidation. The weekly momentum indicators also bears a positive crossover which indicates a positive bias We expect the consolidation to break on the upside and achieve the equality target of Rs4,370 on the upside. Traders should keep a tight stoploss at Rs3,800, which is the low of the penultimate week when it had formed an Engulfing Bear Candle stick pattern.

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX soya bean. We can observe that soya bean broke the trading range on the upside and it rallied smartly towards the crucial resistances. For the past five weeks, it has been oscillating around the crucial resistances. Last week we saw the agricommodity gave a positive weekly close and also closed above the resistance line (shown in blue colour). On a shorter time frame, we can observe that the agricommodity is consolidating in a range and has taken shape of a triangle, which has been broken on the upside. It faced resistance at the daily upper Bollinger Band and corrected once again. This indicates indecision among the market participants. The weekly momentum indicator has a positive crossover and reached the equilibrium line, which completes the pullback cycle. Our view on the agricommodity remains bearish and we expect soya bean to trade weak going ahead. Our targets on the downside are placed at Rs2,866, which is the weekly lower Bollinger Band. the stop loss should be trailed to Rs3,698, which is the 61.8% retracement level of the fall from Rs4,276 to Rs2,838.

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX jeera October contract. We can observe that jeera had formed an impulse on the downside. It retraced up to the 20- daily simple moving average and faced severe selling pressure at the crucial resistance. The weekly momentum indicator has given a negative crossover which indicates that every rise should be sold into. Currently it is trading near the lower end of the bearish flag pattern. Also a crucial medium term rising trend line (shown in blue colour) is providing it support. We expect the flag pattern to break on the downside with a target of Rs11,500 in the coming weeks. Our initial target placed at the weekly lower Bollinger Band has already been achieved. The stop loss should be placed at Rs13,800, which is the weekly upper Bollinger Band.

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX Soya bean. We can observe that soya bean broke the trading range on the upside and rallied smartly towards the crucial resistances. It has faced resistance at the 20- and 40-weekly moving average. Last week the agricommodity gave a positive weekly close. However, it was unable to surpass the crucial moving averages. On a shorter time frame we can observe that the agricommodity is consolidating in a range and has taken the shape of a triangle. We expect this consolidation to break on the downside. It has also faced resistance at the wnward sloping trendline (shown in blue colour) which will act as a key resistance going ahead. The weekly momentum indicator bears a positive crossover and we feel it will touch the equilibrium line which completes the pull-back cycle. Our view on the agri-commodity remains bearish and we expect soya bean to trade weak going ahead. Our target on the downside is placed at Rs2,845, which is the weekly lower bollinger band. The stop loss should be trailed to Rs3,698, which is the swing’s high.

The adjoining chart is of MCX mentha oil October contract. We can observe that mentha oil was trading in a range in the past few trading sessions. The range has been broken on the downside. It is currently trading below the 20- and 40-daily moving averages. The daily momentum indicators have a negative crossover. We expect mentha oil to trade weak in the coming trading sessions. We expect the targets of Rs841, which is the daily lower Bollinger Band, and below that Rs830, which is the previous swing’s low. The reversal of the bearish stance is placed above Rs890, which is the swing’s high.

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX gram chana October contract. We can observe that gram chana was trading in an upward sloping channel which broke on the downside. For the past few trading sessions it has been trading in a sideways manner. Our sense is that it is forming a triangle and we expect it to break on the upside. The daily momentum indicator has been oscillating around the equilibrium line which is in sync with the price action. So the strategy to trade gram chana is to buy on decline near the Rs3,000 level which is the daily lower Bollinger Band for the targets of Rs3,240, which is the swing’s high and above that we expect Rs3,400, which is the weekly upper Bollinger Band. The reversal of the bullish stance is placed below Rs2,875, which is the 50% retracement of the rise.

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX soya oil October contract. We can observe that soya oil has been correcting sharply for the past few weeks. In the penultimate trading session it formed an engulfing bull candlestick pattern which has bullish implications. In our previous report on soya oil we had forecast that soya oil would correct up to Rs650 which was the 78.6% retracement of the fall. It achieved the target. Going ahead we expect soya oil to trade positive for the target of Rs682, which is the area of 20- and 40-daily moving averages. The reversal of the bullish stance is placed below Rs648, which is the low of the engulfing bull candlestick pattern. And below this level the pattern will get negated.

The adjoining chart is a chart of NCDEX jeera October contract. We can observe that jeera had formed an impulse on the downside. It retraced up to the 20-daily simple moving average (DSMA) and faced severe selling pressure at the crucial resistance. The daily momentum indicator has a negative crossover which indicates that every rise should be sold into. In the last trading session it broke below the previous swing’s low which indicates that the next leg on the downside has already begun which should take the agri-commodity to the daily lower Bollinger Band placed at Rs12,777 and below that we expect the target of Rs12,170, which is the equality target. The stop loss should be placed at Rs13,445, which is the 20-DSMA.

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX soya bean. We can observe that soya bean broke the trading range on the upside and rallied smartly towards the crucial resistances. It faced resistance at the 20-weekly simple moving average and closed negative for the last week which indicates weakness to surpass the crucial resistance placed at the 20- and 40-weekly moving averages. It has also faced resistance at the downward sloping trend line (shown in blue colour) which will act as a key resistance going ahead. The weekly momentum indicator bears a positive crossover and we feel it will touch the equilibrium line which completes the pull-back cycle. Our view on the agri-commodity remains bearish and we expect soya bean to trade weak going ahead. Our target on the downside are placed at Rs2,836, which is the weekly lower Bollinger Band. The stop loss should be trailed to Rs3,698, which is the high level of penultimate week.

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX jeera October contract. We can observe that jeera has completed a five-wave decline on the downside. In the last trading session it gave a positive close which means that the move is complete and we will get a retracement of the fall. We expect jeera to retrace its recent fall and expect it to retrace upto Rs13,700, which is the 20-daily simple moving average and above that it can retrace upto Rs14,100, which is the 61.8% retracement of the fall. Traders can play the retracement with a stoploss at Rs13,350 for a target of Rs14,100 on the upside. Positional traders can go short on the agri-commodity around Rs14,100 levels with a stoploss at Rs14,300, which is the 78.6% retracement of the fall.

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX gram chana October contract. We can observe that gram chana has been consolidating in a range for the past few trading sessions. The agri-commodity has taken support at the 40-daily exponential moving average and the daily lower Bollinger Band. The daily momentum indicator has completed its pullback to the equilibrium line. We expect this consolidation to break on the upside and targets of Rs3,305, which is the previous swing’s high and Rs3,514, which is the weekly upper Bollinger Band. The reversal of the bullish stance is placed below Rs3,024- 3000 level, which is a crucial support area for the agri-commodity

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX RM seed October contract. We can observe that RM seed was trading in an upward sloping channel which broke on the downside. It took support at the 40-daily exponential moving average (DEMA), ie Rs3,475. In the last trading session it closed above the 20-daily simple moving average. We expect RM seed to trade with a positive bias going ahead for the target of Rs3,667, which is the daily upper Bollinger Band and above that we expect the agri-commodity to test its previous high of Rs3,700. The reversal of the bearish stance is placed below the Rs3,489, which is the 40-DEMA

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX Jeera. We can observe that Jeera was trading in a sideways manner since April this year and has range broken out on the upside. It faced resistance at the downward sloping trendline (Yellow colour) and closed negative for the second consecutive week. It is currently trading below the 20- and 40-weekly moving averages and the weekly momentum indicator has a given a fresh negative crossover. In terms of price pattern it has formed a Bearish Flag pattern which is expected to break on the downside. The reversal of the bearish stance is placed at Rs13,800 - Rs13,850, which is the area of the weekly upper Bollinger Band. The target on the downside is Rs12,800, which is the weekly lower Bollinger Band.

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX Cotton seed oil cake April contract. We can observe that cotton seed has seen a sharp run-up after breaking out of a triangle. We expect this momentum to continue upto Rs1,568, which is the daily upper Bollinger Band, and Rs1,586, which is the previous swing high. The momentum indicators have a positive crossover. The reversal can be trailed to Rs1,524, which is the 40-hourly exponential moving average.

The following chart is of NCDEX soy oil April contract. We can observe that soy oil has faced resistance at the 20- daily simple moving average (DSMA) and sold off from there. It has broken its previous swing low and the fall has been extended. The momentum indicators have a negative crossover and soy oil is also trading below the crucial daily averages. Thus we expect the agri commodity to trade with a negative bias for the target of Rs644 on the downside, which is the previous swing low. The reversal can be trailed at Rs681, the 20-DSMA.