2012-04-22

NCDEX Chilli is falling towards the long-term rising trendline. The commodity had taken support near a medium-term falling trendline however it could not surpass the 20-DMA. In terms of the wave structure one leg is pending on the downside. This leg will take Chilli to the long-term rising trendline as the equality target meets the same. The medium-term falling trendline will act as an intermediate support (Rs4,579). On the other hand, the 20-DMA (Rs5,057) and the swing high (Rs5,174) are the key resistances, which will act as the reversal for the bearish view.

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Since Jeera has broken down from the wedge pattern it has fallen sharply. The fall is unfolding in a channelised manner and is breaking up into lower degree waves. Recently a lower degree fourth wave bounce has been formed. It faces resistance near the upper channel line, the 40-daily exponential moving average and the daily upper Bollinger Band. Thus the upside is caped at the high of Rs12,580. On the downside the low of Rs11,275 and the lower channel line (Rs10,750) are short-term targets.


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Soybean broke out from the triangle on the upside and rallied towards the previous highs. It halted there for a week and ultimately surpassed the hurdle of Rs2,824 and Rs2,826. The breakout occurred along with high volumes. Consequently the agri-commodity achieved and even surpassed both the equality targets. Though the momentum indicators are in an overbought territory they are holding strong and unless weakness is seen in the price action the rally is likely to continue. From medium-term perspective 161.8% retracement mark (Rs3,580) and upper end of the rising channel (Rs3,830) will be the targets. On the other hand, Rs3,146 will be the reconsideration level.


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