SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

MCX mentha oil was falling for several weeks. The fall unfolded in a channelised manner. However the agri commodity has entered a pull-back mode for the last few sessions. It has broken out from the channel on the upside. In terms of price pattern it has formed an inverted Head and Shoulder, which is bullish. The agri-commodity has completed the right shoulder and is on the verge of a breakout from the neckline. The daily momentum indicator is in line with the bullish formation. Thus this is an opportunity for bulls to go long with reversal below Rs.926. On the higher side Rs.1,016 and Rs1,030 will be the levels to watch out for.

As can be seen from the adjacent chart, MCX mentha oil was trading in a medium-term downward sloping channel. Recently it crossed the upper end of the channel and retested it. Along with the channel line key daily moving averages acted as crucial supports for the agri commodity. At these supports the oil formed a bullish outside bar on the daily chart. As a follow through mentha oil has started a fresh move on the upside. It is forming higher tops higher bottoms on the daily chart, which is a bullish sign. The daily momentum indicator is in line with the price action. The key level on the upside will be Rs.746. On the other hand, Rs.708 and Rs703 will act as a key support zone.

As can be seen from the adjacent chart, MCX mentha oil was trading in a medium-term downward sloping channel. Recently it has crossed the upper end of the channel and has retested it. Along with the channel line the key daily moving averages are there to provide support to the agri-commodity. At these supports the oil formed a bullish outside bar in the last session. Thus the commodity looks set to move higher. The key levels on the upside will be Rs740 and Rs.746. On the other hand, the swing’s low of Rs.691 will act as a key support on a closing basis.

The adjoining chart is of MCX mentha oil October contract. We can observe that mentha oil was trading in a range in the past few trading sessions. The range has been broken on the downside. It is currently trading below the 20- and 40-daily moving averages. The daily momentum indicators have a negative crossover. We expect mentha oil to trade weak in the coming trading sessions. We expect the targets of Rs841, which is the daily lower Bollinger Band, and below that Rs830, which is the previous swing’s low. The reversal of the bearish stance is placed above Rs890, which is the swing’s high.

The adjoining is a continuous chart of MCX Mentha oil.We can observe that Mentha oil after giving a break out of the triangle has given a run up sharply and is nearing its crucial resistances placed at Rs1,400 and Rs1,416. The momentum indicators have a positive crossover and we expect the rally to continue up to the crucial resistances placed at Rs1,400 and Rs1,416. Traders can trail their stop loss at the swing low of Rs1,304.

The following chart is of MCX mentha oil October contract.Mentha oil has been correcting sharply for the past few trading sessions. Currently it is trading near its crucial support zone placed around Rs1,140 and Rs1,160. We expect mentha oil to hold near the crucial support zone. The momentum indicators have a negative crossover indicating some downside in the agri commodity. Thus, as soon as we get a positive daily close one should go long for the targets of Rs1,236, which is the area of wave 4, and Rs1,266, which is the 20-daily simple moving average.The reversal of the bullish stance is placed below the crucial support of Rs1,140.