SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

Adjacent chart shows price movement of NCDEX soya oil continuous contract. Structurally the oil formed a multimonth triangle, which broke out on the upside. From there the oil rallied nicely. The up move got over at 682.70. From there the agri-commodity has entered correction mode. The daily momentum indicator is in bearish mode. A minor degree bounce faced resistance near the key daily moving averages (DMAs). Thus the next leg down is expected to start off, which can target Rs621-615.5. on the flip side, Rs652-657 is a key resistance zone on a closing basis.

 

NCDEX jeera is moving up in a channelised manner since the beginning of February. It has formed a channel within a channel. The move that has started from the March low has now reached near a crucial resistance zone. This leg has achieved 161.8% of the equality target and retraced 78.6% of the previous fall. It has also halted near upper ends of both the channels. The short-term momentum indicator has been stretched to the overbought zone. Thus the agri commodity can go for a correction. Rs16,670-16,625 will be the key area on the downside. On the higher side, Rs17,670-18,185 will act as a key resistance area.

Adjacent chart shows the price movement of NCDEX soya oil continuous contract. Structurally, the oil formed a multi month triangle, which broke out on the upside. Since then the oil rallied nicely. However the up move looks complete at Rs 682.70. From there the agri-commodity has entered short-term correction mode. The daily momentum indicator is showing negative divergence and has given a fresh sell signal. Thus soya oil can come down to test the daily lower Bollinger Band, ie Rs 635.

 

Adjacent chart shows price movement of NCDEX turmeric continuous contract. From the high of Rs 10,660, the agri-commodity had entered correction mode. The fall is breaking up into the lower degree waves. Recently turmeric broke out from a falling channel and formed a pullback. The bounce faced resistance near the multiple hurdles. From there turmeric has started falling once again. The daily momentum indicator is poised for a new cycle on the downside. Rs 7,815-7,475 will be the key levels on the downside from short- to medium-term perspective. On the other hand, Rs 8,632-8,700 will act as a key resistance zone.

For several weeks NCDEX soybean was oscillating about the key DMAs. In terms of price patterns, the agri-commodity formed a triangular pattern, which broke out on the upside. Since the breakout the commodity has been marching towards north. It consolidated near the previous high of Rs4,121 and 78.6% retracement mark for few days and started moving higher. The commodity is moving up in a channelised manner. The subsequent levels on the upside will be Rs 4,412 and Rs 4,560. The level of Rs 4,121 will act as a crucial support on a closing basis

Pepper futures slipped for the six trading sessions on the back of reports of Vietnam easing the prices of new crops and arrivals of Indian crops in the local market. The NMCE pepper for the February delivery ended the day at Rs 51,067, down Rs 383 or 0.74% over Friday`s close. Pepper futures are expected to extend the losses on profit taking and reports of flow of arrivals from India and Vietnam`s plan to sell at lower rates.

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX Jeera. We can observe that Jeera was trading in a sideways manner since April this year and has range broken out on the upside. It faced resistance at the downward sloping trendline (Yellow colour) and closed negative for the second consecutive week. It is currently trading below the 20- and 40-weekly moving averages and the weekly momentum indicator has a given a fresh negative crossover. In terms of price pattern it has formed a Bearish Flag pattern which is expected to break on the downside. The reversal of the bearish stance is placed at Rs13,800 - Rs13,850, which is the area of the weekly upper Bollinger Band. The target on the downside is Rs12,800, which is the weekly lower Bollinger Band.

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX Cotton seed oil cake April contract. We can observe that cotton seed has seen a sharp run-up after breaking out of a triangle. We expect this momentum to continue upto Rs1,568, which is the daily upper Bollinger Band, and Rs1,586, which is the previous swing high. The momentum indicators have a positive crossover. The reversal can be trailed to Rs1,524, which is the 40-hourly exponential moving average.

The following chart is of NCDEX soy oil April contract. We can observe that soy oil has faced resistance at the 20- daily simple moving average (DSMA) and sold off from there. It has broken its previous swing low and the fall has been extended. The momentum indicators have a negative crossover and soy oil is also trading below the crucial daily averages. Thus we expect the agri commodity to trade with a negative bias for the target of Rs644 on the downside, which is the previous swing low. The reversal can be trailed at Rs681, the 20-DSMA.