SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

Soybean: Going strong

Soybean broke out from the triangle on the upside and rallied towards the previous highs. It halted there for a week and ultimately surpassed the hurdle of Rs2,824 and Rs2,826. The breakout occurred along with high volumes. Consequently the agri-commodity achieved and even surpassed both the equality targets. Though the momentum indicators are in an overbought territory they are holding strong and unless weakness is seen in the price action the rally is likely to continue. From medium-term perspective 161.8% retracement mark (Rs3,580) and upper end of the rising channel (Rs3,830) will be the targets. On the other hand, Rs3,146 will be the reconsideration level.

Dhaniya: Bears take control

Dhaniya

After falling from Rs6,612 to Rs3,688, NCDEX dhaniya formed a bearish triangle. The last leg of the pattern got over near the key resistance zone of 40-weekly exponential moving average and the weekly upper Bollinger Band. The weekly momentum indicator is placed near the equilibrium line and can start new cycle down. The daily momentum indicator has already started a new cycle on the downside. On the daily chart the key moving averages were been broken in the last session. The short term target is Rs3,830, below which the next leg down will start unfolding. The equality target is Rs2,685. The reversal can be trailed to Rs4,535 with tight reversal at Rs4,370.

RM Seed: The next leg down

RM Seed

NCDEX RM Seed is trading in a long-term rising channel.It recently overshot the upper channel line twice; however it couldn’t sustain there. The daily as well as the weekly momentum indicators didn’t support the breakout as they both were showing negative divergence. The daily momentum indicator has triggered a bearish crossover. In terms of wave structure RM Seed has formed the first leg of the fall and has bounced thereon. In the last session it formed an inside bar, which is a beginning of the next leg down. Thus unless the high of Rs3,989 is crossed the agri-commodity is expected to undergo a correction. The key levels on the downside are equality target (Rs3,700) and 61.8% retracement of the previous rally (Rs3,530).