SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

January 31, 2012 Wheat (NCDEX 1st month): A pause

As evident from the chart, the commodity has found resistance at the upper end of the daily Bollinger Band and is currently trading below its 20-daily moving average (Rs1,253). The daily momentum indicator is in sell mode indicating a halt in the uptrend that started from the lows of Rs1,100. Hence in the short term it is likely to correct lower towards Rs1,200, which will be the 50% retracement of the rise from Rs1,100-1,300. The reversal of the view is placed at Rs1,277 where the upper daily Bollinger Band is placed.

January 27, 2012,Wheat: Momentum in favour of bears

Wheat

NCDEX wheat has been trading near the 20-daily moving average and the daily upper Bollinger Band for the last few sessions. It recently faced resistance near the upper end of a rising channel. The daily Bollinger Bands are squeezing and the daily momentum indicator shows that they are likely to expand in favour of bears. The key resistances on the upside are Rs1,287-1,300. On the flip side the agri commodity is expected to test the 40-daily exponential moving average, the daily lower Bollinger Band (Rs1,225) and below that the 40-weekly exponential moving average (Rs1,185).

January 25, 2012,Cotton seed oilcake: Set for a slide

The NCDEX cotton seed oilcake seems to have completed a three-wave pull-back. It has done a deep retracement of the previous fall. From the upper end of the channel the agri-commodity is now expected to travel southward. The daily momentum indicator has given a sell signal from an overbought level. The intermediate and lower channel lines are near Rs1,260-1,215 respectively. The reversal has been kept at Rs1,360.

January 24, 2012: Dhaniya (NCDEX 1st month): 20-WMA @ 4605

Dhaniya

As evident from the chart, the commodity is nearing the 20-weekly moving average, which is currently placed at Rs4,605. Hence this would be a key make or break level and once the price closes above this area on a weekly basis it is likely to target Rs4,865/5,211. The momentum cycles are in buy mode on weekly and daily time frames suggesting bulls have an upper hand in the short and medium term. Hence any correction should find support at the 20-daily moving average, which is currently placed at Rs4,120.