SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

MCX mentha oil was falling for several weeks. The fall unfolded in a channelised manner. However the agri commodity has entered a pull-back mode for the last few sessions. It has broken out from the channel on the upside. In terms of price pattern it has formed an inverted Head and Shoulder, which is bullish. The agri-commodity has completed the right shoulder and is on the verge of a breakout from the neckline. The daily momentum indicator is in line with the bullish formation. Thus this is an opportunity for bulls to go long with reversal below Rs.926. On the higher side Rs.1,016 and Rs1,030 will be the levels to watch out for.

The adjacent chart shows price movement of NCDEX soya oil August contract. From the high of Rs.616.6, soya oil has been heading towards south. On the occasions of minor degree bounces it has been facing resistance near the key day moving averages. Recently it faced resistance there and has started falling down. The fall is breaking up into lower degree waves. The medium term momentum indicator is in line with the fall, whereas the daily momentum indicator has triggered a fresh bearish crossover. Thus unless the level of Rs.583 is crossed the agri-commodity is expected to trade with downward bias. The key levels on the downside will be Rs.566.80 and Rs.555.50.

The adjacent chart shows the price movement of NCDEX cotton seed oil cake continuous contract. The agri-commodity was trading in a sideways manner for few sessions. It found support near the key day moving averages as well as near the medium-term rising trendline. The daily momentum indicator has triggered a buy signal. Thus from there the commodity has started heading higher. On the way up it crossed the high of Rs.1,907, however couldn’t sustain in the higher territory. As long as it trades above Rs.1,820, the bullish potential remains intact. Once the recent high of Rs.1,916 is crossed, the weekly upper Bollinger Band ie Rs1,953 will be the target.

NCDEX jeera has fallen signifi cantly in last few weeks. It has fallen towards the lower end of the reverse channel. On the higher side, it is facing resistance near the junction of the 40- day exponential moving average and the daily upper Bollinger Band. It is trading within this range for a last few sessions. Thus the agri-commodity is in a make or break zone. The short-term momentum indicator has completed its pull-back cycle whereas the medium-term momentum indicator is in a bearish mode. Thus unless the swing’s high of Rs.16,675 is crossed the commodity is likely to slide down. The key levels on the downside will be Rs15,100 and Rs.14,530.