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After falling from Rs6,612 to Rs3,688, NCDEX dhaniya formed a bearish triangle. The last leg of the pattern got over near the key resistance zone of 40-weekly exponential moving average and the weekly upper Bollinger Band. The weekly momentum indicator is placed near the equilibrium line and can start new cycle down. The daily momentum indicator has already started a new cycle on the downside. On the daily chart the key moving averages were been broken in the last session. The short term target is Rs3,830, below which the next leg down will start unfolding. The equality target is Rs2,685. The reversal can be trailed to Rs4,535 with tight reversal at Rs4,370.


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NCDEX RM Seed is trading in a long-term rising channel.It recently overshot the upper channel line twice; however it couldn’t sustain there. The daily as well as the weekly momentum indicators didn’t support the breakout as they both were showing negative divergence. The daily momentum indicator has triggered a bearish crossover. In terms of wave structure RM Seed has formed the first leg of the fall and has bounced thereon. In the last session it formed an inside bar, which is a beginning of the next leg down. Thus unless the high of Rs3,989 is crossed the agri-commodity is expected to undergo a correction. The key levels on the downside are equality target (Rs3,700) and 61.8% retracement of the previous rally (Rs3,530).


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MCX mentha oil in the last few months had run up sharply. After achieving multiple equality targets the commodity has formed a channelised correction. The correction found support at the crucial support zone of the 40-daily exponential moving average and the daily lower Bollinger Band. From the support junction mentha oil has formed a higher top higher bottom, which is a sign of beginning of an up trend. It has crossed the 20-daily moving average. The channel breakout level is Rs2,330. The targets beyond that are Rs2,564.8 and Rs2,735. The reversal can be assumed below the low of Rs2,021.

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After the first leg of the fall, ie. from Rs766.9 to 674, NCDEX refined soy oil formed a pullback. The wave structure shows that it was a complex corrective structure. In terms of Fibonacci retracement the pullback retraced nearly 78.6% of the fall. The agri commodity is now set for the next leg down. The daily momentum indicator is also showing a negative divergence. Unless the key Fibonacci retracement (Rs748) is crossed on a closing basis the targets on the downside are Rs674 (the low) and Rs654 (the equality target).

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