SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

As can be seen from the adjacent chart, MCX mentha oil was trading in a medium-term downward sloping channel. Recently it has crossed the upper end of the channel and has retested it. Along with the channel line the key daily moving averages are there to provide support to the agri-commodity. At these supports the oil formed a bullish outside bar in the last session. Thus the commodity looks set to move higher. The key levels on the upside will be Rs740 and Rs.746. On the other hand, the swing’s low of Rs.691 will act as a key support on a closing basis.

The adjacent chart shows the price movement of NCDEX soyabean December contract. For last few sessions the agri-commodity has been trading in sideways to a bearish manner. Currently it is trading near the lower end of a sideways channel. The junction of 40-day exponential moving average and the daily lower Bollinger Band is acting as an additional support. Thus the commodity seems to be forming a short term base. Rs3,217 and Rs3,196 is a key support zone. Till the time the support zone holds on a closing basis soyabean can move higher. The key levels on the upside will be Rs3,300 and Rs3,370.

Jeera futures ended the day lower on short selling amid higher arrivals. The NCDEX Jeera April delivery ended the day at Rs9965, down Rs 125 or 1.24% over last close. Cumin seed is likely to drop further on bounty crop amid weak export demand at present.

The market sources suggested that the total domestic Jeera production is estimated at 55-60 lakh bags in the current year against the previous estimates of 45-48 lakh bags. This is mainly due to strong production estimates in Gujarat. The prices will also be pressurized by fresh supplies in local mandies. Traders are expecting that arrivals are likely to gain momentum in the coming days on the account of rising new supplies from Rajasthan.

Jeera failed to recover further as short selling emerged triggered by higher arrivals. The counter touched almost six year low with prices hitting low of Rs 9870 level. The counter ended the day at Rs9965, down Rs 125 or 1.24% over last close and the open interest added 147 tonnes to 9,699 tonnes, indicating short selling. Technically, the counter is likely to find support at Rs 9870, Rs 9800 and resistance is at Rs 10,000, Rs 10,100 per quintal.

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX soya oil March contract. We can observe that soya oil has been in a short-term uptrend for the past couple of weeks. It has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily charts which indicates an uptrend. The daily momentum indicator has a positive crossover and is currently trading above the 20- and 40-daily moving averages. Our initial target of Rs709 has been achieved. Traders are advised to trail their stop loss at Rs702 to protect their profits. The targets on the upside are Rs718 and Rs728.