SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

Jeera To Trade Lower On Weak Fundamentals

Jeera futures ended the day lower on short selling amid higher arrivals. The NCDEX Jeera April delivery ended the day at Rs9965, down Rs 125 or 1.24% over last close. Cumin seed is likely to drop further on bounty crop amid weak export demand at present.

The market sources suggested that the total domestic Jeera production is estimated at 55-60 lakh bags in the current year against the previous estimates of 45-48 lakh bags. This is mainly due to strong production estimates in Gujarat. The prices will also be pressurized by fresh supplies in local mandies. Traders are expecting that arrivals are likely to gain momentum in the coming days on the account of rising new supplies from Rajasthan.

Jeera failed to recover further as short selling emerged triggered by higher arrivals. The counter touched almost six year low with prices hitting low of Rs 9870 level. The counter ended the day at Rs9965, down Rs 125 or 1.24% over last close and the open interest added 147 tonnes to 9,699 tonnes, indicating short selling. Technically, the counter is likely to find support at Rs 9870, Rs 9800 and resistance is at Rs 10,000, Rs 10,100 per quintal.

NCDEX soya oil March short-term uptrend

Soya Oil

The adjoining chart is of NCDEX soya oil March contract. We can observe that soya oil has been in a short-term uptrend for the past couple of weeks. It has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on the daily charts which indicates an uptrend. The daily momentum indicator has a positive crossover and is currently trading above the 20- and 40-daily moving averages. Our initial target of Rs709 has been achieved. Traders are advised to trail their stop loss at Rs702 to protect their profits. The targets on the upside are Rs718 and Rs728.

Cardamom spurted further on the report of strong export demand

Cardamom Likely To Witness Pull Back

Cardamom spurted further on the report of strong export demand. The spice continued it`s up trend for the sixth consecutive trading sessions with the futures hitting upper circuit in the last two sessions.MCX Cardamom for the February delivery ended the day at Rs 787.40, up Rs 30.20 or 3.99%. Technically, the counter is at overbought position as on Thursday close (the 14-day RSI is at 85 levels) and so a pull back can be expected in the coming sessions. Therefore, further acquisition of long positions should be careful.

As per the latest spices export data released by the spices board of India, India exported small Cardamom of 1,805 MT valued at Rs. 144.35 crore during the period April to November 2013, jumped 38% and 22% respectively in volume and value of exports. Indian crop also better on favorable weather this year and the next picking is just starting. The overall arrivals in the auctions in India so far 20th January 2014 are estimated at 13,264 tonnes, against 6,787 tonnes same period last year. The harvesting of the new crop had just started in Guatemala. Crop size is similar to last year.

The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX jeera March 2014 contract. Jeera made a sharp pullback towards the medium-term rising trendline (shown in blue colour) after completing a five-wave decline on the downside. The agri-commodity has faced resistance at the crucial 61.8% retracement level and sold off from there. Last week we saw the agri-commodity traded in a volatile manner and closed the week with marginal gains. It was unable to close above the crucial weekly moving averages which indicates that the weakness still persists. We expect jeera to trade weak for the targets of Rs.11895, which is the previous swing’s low, and Rs11,275, which is the next swing’s low. The stop loss should be trailed to Rs12,947, which is the swing’s high.