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Cardamom spurted further on the report of strong export demand. The spice continued it`s up trend for the sixth consecutive trading sessions with the futures hitting upper circuit in the last two sessions.MCX Cardamom for the February delivery ended the day at Rs 787.40, up Rs 30.20 or 3.99%. Technically, the counter is at overbought position as on Thursday close (the 14-day RSI is at 85 levels) and so a pull back can be expected in the coming sessions. Therefore, further acquisition of long positions should be careful.

As per the latest spices export data released by the spices board of India, India exported small Cardamom of 1,805 MT valued at Rs. 144.35 crore during the period April to November 2013, jumped 38% and 22% respectively in volume and value of exports. Indian crop also better on favorable weather this year and the next picking is just starting. The overall arrivals in the auctions in India so far 20th January 2014 are estimated at 13,264 tonnes, against 6,787 tonnes same period last year. The harvesting of the new crop had just started in Guatemala. Crop size is similar to last year.

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The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX jeera March 2014 contract. Jeera made a sharp pullback towards the medium-term rising trendline (shown in blue colour) after completing a five-wave decline on the downside. The agri-commodity has faced resistance at the crucial 61.8% retracement level and sold off from there. Last week we saw the agri-commodity traded in a volatile manner and closed the week with marginal gains. It was unable to close above the crucial weekly moving averages which indicates that the weakness still persists. We expect jeera to trade weak for the targets of Rs.11895, which is the previous swing’s low, and Rs11,275, which is the next swing’s low. The stop loss should be trailed to Rs12,947, which is the swing’s high.
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Pepper futures slipped for the six trading sessions on the back of reports of Vietnam easing the prices of new crops and arrivals of Indian crops in the local market. The NMCE pepper for the February delivery ended the day at Rs 51,067, down Rs 383 or 0.74% over Friday`s close. Pepper futures are expected to extend the losses on profit taking and reports of flow of arrivals from India and Vietnam`s plan to sell at lower rates.
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The adjoining chart is a weekly chart of NCDEX soya bean. Last week we saw soya bean traded within the range of the penultimate week and closed positive. Our sense is that it is in “wave IV” where we generally see a sideways consolidation. The weekly momentum indicators also bears a positive crossover which indicates a positive bias We expect the consolidation to break on the upside and achieve the equality target of Rs4,370 on the upside. Traders should keep a tight stoploss at Rs3,800, which is the low of the penultimate week when it had formed an Engulfing Bear Candle stick pattern.
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