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NCDEX RM Seed is trading in a long-term rising channel.It recently overshot the upper channel line twice; however it couldn’t sustain there. The daily as well as the weekly momentum indicators didn’t support the breakout as they both were showing negative divergence. The daily momentum indicator has triggered a bearish crossover. In terms of wave structure RM Seed has formed the first leg of the fall and has bounced thereon. In the last session it formed an inside bar, which is a beginning of the next leg down. Thus unless the high of Rs3,989 is crossed the agri-commodity is expected to undergo a correction. The key levels on the downside are equality target (Rs3,700) and 61.8% retracement of the previous rally (Rs3,530).


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MCX mentha oil in the last few months had run up sharply. After achieving multiple equality targets the commodity has formed a channelised correction. The correction found support at the crucial support zone of the 40-daily exponential moving average and the daily lower Bollinger Band. From the support junction mentha oil has formed a higher top higher bottom, which is a sign of beginning of an up trend. It has crossed the 20-daily moving average. The channel breakout level is Rs2,330. The targets beyond that are Rs2,564.8 and Rs2,735. The reversal can be assumed below the low of Rs2,021.

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After the first leg of the fall, ie. from Rs766.9 to 674, NCDEX refined soy oil formed a pullback. The wave structure shows that it was a complex corrective structure. In terms of Fibonacci retracement the pullback retraced nearly 78.6% of the fall. The agri commodity is now set for the next leg down. The daily momentum indicator is also showing a negative divergence. Unless the key Fibonacci retracement (Rs748) is crossed on a closing basis the targets on the downside are Rs674 (the low) and Rs654 (the equality target).

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Crude palm oil had taken support at the rising trendline. Since then it has been riding the up trend. However recently it has formed an ending diagonal and has broken on the downside. This indicates that the rally has matured atleast from short-term perspective. The daily momentum indicator has given a fresh sell signal. At this level risk-reward ratio is also extremely favorable for bears. Hence one can short the commodity with reversal above Rs572.4 on a closing basis. The targets would be Rs555 and Rs541.
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