SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

February 07, 2012,Mentha oil: Correction on the cards

MCX mentha oil has started correcting from the high of Rs1,619. It has fallen from the daily upper Bollinger Band towards the 20-daily moving average. In the last week it had formed a doji at weekly upper Bollinger Band suggesting a loss of momentum on the upside. As a result, the commodity is falling. The daily momentum indicator has given a sell signal. The targets on the downside are Rs1,440 (the daily lower Bollinger Band) and Rs1,360 (the 78.6% retracement mark).

February 02, 2012,Soy bean (NCDEX 1st month): Quite accumulation

Soya Been

As evident from the chart, the commodity has been finding support near its 50% Fibonacci retracement level that is around Rs2,437. For the last couple of trading sessions it has been finding support near this area. Going forward,the immediate resistance is placed at Rs2,490, which is the falling trend line resistance. Once that is taken off bulls will take charge of this commodity and head higher towards Rs2,470 and Rs2,606. The reversal of this view is placed at Rs2,399, which is 61.8% retracement level.

January 31, 2012 Wheat (NCDEX 1st month): A pause

Wheat

As evident from the chart, the commodity has found resistance at the upper end of the daily Bollinger Band and is currently trading below its 20-daily moving average (Rs1,253). The daily momentum indicator is in sell mode indicating a halt in the uptrend that started from the lows of Rs1,100. Hence in the short term it is likely to correct lower towards Rs1,200, which will be the 50% retracement of the rise from Rs1,100-1,300. The reversal of the view is placed at Rs1,277 where the upper daily Bollinger Band is placed.

January 27, 2012,Wheat: Momentum in favour of bears

Wheat

NCDEX wheat has been trading near the 20-daily moving average and the daily upper Bollinger Band for the last few sessions. It recently faced resistance near the upper end of a rising channel. The daily Bollinger Bands are squeezing and the daily momentum indicator shows that they are likely to expand in favour of bears. The key resistances on the upside are Rs1,287-1,300. On the flip side the agri commodity is expected to test the 40-daily exponential moving average, the daily lower Bollinger Band (Rs1,225) and below that the 40-weekly exponential moving average (Rs1,185).