SHUBHLAXMI NCDEX

January 25, 2012,Cotton seed oilcake: Set for a slide

The NCDEX cotton seed oilcake seems to have completed a three-wave pull-back. It has done a deep retracement of the previous fall. From the upper end of the channel the agri-commodity is now expected to travel southward. The daily momentum indicator has given a sell signal from an overbought level. The intermediate and lower channel lines are near Rs1,260-1,215 respectively. The reversal has been kept at Rs1,360.

January 24, 2012: Dhaniya (NCDEX 1st month): 20-WMA @ 4605

Dhaniya

As evident from the chart, the commodity is nearing the 20-weekly moving average, which is currently placed at Rs4,605. Hence this would be a key make or break level and once the price closes above this area on a weekly basis it is likely to target Rs4,865/5,211. The momentum cycles are in buy mode on weekly and daily time frames suggesting bulls have an upper hand in the short and medium term. Hence any correction should find support at the 20-daily moving average, which is currently placed at Rs4,120.

Gram chana (NCDEX 1st month): Resistance ahead

Chana

As evident from the chart, the commodity is nearing the key resistance zone of 50% retracement level, which is currently placed at Rs3,276, and the gap area (Rs3,297). Also the 40-daily exponential moving average is placed at Rs3,295 and hence it is the major hurdle for bulls going forward. On the lower side, it is likely to retest the lower trend line around Rs3,044 in the short term.

Soy bean (NCDEX Feb month): 50% @ 2437

Soya Been

As evident from the chart, the commodity has been correcting from the high of Rs2,659 and is now nearing the key support zone of 50% retracement level of Rs2,214- 2,660 swing. The daily momentum indicator is in sell mode but is likely to finish its down cycle in the coming few days. Also, the prices are nearing the lower daily Bollinger Band that is currently placed at Rs2,460. Hence the area of Rs2,437-2,460 is likely to act as a key support area in the short term. Aggressive traders can accumulate in this area with a stop placed at Rs2,385 (61.8% retracement) on a closing basis.